Polls No Longer Ruling Out Labour Defeat in Hounslow

Brentford and Isleworth wards likely to be decisive in outcome

The election is taking place on 7 May

May 1, 2026

Earlier in the local election campaign polling had suggested that a Labour loss of control in Hounslow was very unlikely but the situation have changed significantly as polling day approaches.

Voters in Brentford and Isleworth are going to have a decisive say in whether or not there is a change to the administration as many of the key battleground wards are located here.

The day after the full candidate lists were declared, PollCheck put the chances of a control change in the borough at just 4%. Last week that had risen to 17% and, at the time of writing, this has now increased to 26% suggesting a one in four chance of what would originally have been a major upset. Although Labour is still considered the most likely victor, the party is expected to see a fall in its vote share of over a fifth and, on current projections, will have just a single digit seat majority on the council.

Pollcheck’s predictions are based on combining the latest polls from third party organisations such as YouGov and Electoral Calculus with demographic information. It is the only polling company making available projections at a ward level. While the limitations of this approach, which misses out specific local factors, should be noted and the results regarded as speculative, we are confident it is objective.

YouGov's London council election MRP polling has the contest even closer with just a 2 percentage point difference between Labour, which it predicts to take just 25% of the vote, and the Greens. It rates the borough as a contest between these two parties but it does not provide ward level analysis.

Labour need 32 seats for a majority and middle range prediction is for them to win 39. Reform is projected to get a vote share of around 19% across the borough, below the 27% the latest national polls have tit at and that could secure it around five seats. The Conservatives, the Greens and the Lib Dems are also anticipated to have vote shares in the teens and to pick up seats in areas of particular strength.

Even with a fall of over 20 percentage points in its vote share, Labour is still projected to take 25 seats mainly in the Hounslow, Heston and Cranford areas, but also including Brentford East, with comfortable majorities. This leaves them requiring just seven seats in the rest of the borough. Four of the five most marginal constituencies in the borough cover the TW7 and TW8 areas.

PollCheck has rated both Brentford West and Isleworth as too close to call. In the former, it is the Greens and Labour currently ahead, with Reform drifting back into third place since the last time we covered this poll. Reform did not field a candidate in the by-election held in this ward in 2024, but the above borough average performance appears to be based on the strong showing by the party in last year’s Brentford East by-election where it finished second.

It is not clear why a higher share has been given to Reform in Brentford West compared to Brentford West. The ward is projected to have the highest vote share for the Greens of any in the borough and will be one of their top targets with Guy Lambert defending his seat. The advantage of incumbency, in which sitting councillors tend to do better than fresh candidates from the same party, is incorporated into the analysis but this is done uniformly and does not take account of the impact individuals have made during their term.

In Isleworth it is the Liberal Democrats who appear to be shaping up as the main challenger to Labour with, once again PollCheck rating it as too close to call. The differences between the two parties appear to amount to a handful of votes with the current prediction being for the Lib Dems to take two of the three seats, one more than in previous polls. This puts at risk some high-profile figures in the current administration including Sue Sampson, Salman Shaheen and John Stroud-Turp.

In Syon & Brentford Lock, the projection remains unchanged from last time out with the Brentford Independents including Theo Dennison expected to take two of the three seats.

Osterley and Spring Grove is also predicted to be a battle between the Lib Dems and Labour with the latter holding on to two of the three seats they currently hold unchanged from earlier estimates.

The current projection is for Labour to take five seats in these four TW7/TW8 wards and if it achieves that, it would almost certainly retain control of the council as its predicted vote share in at least five other wards (not including the 25 which current polling indicates are safe’) is the largest of any of the parties.

It should be pointed out that these margins remain so fine that many these seats will be won by double digit or even single digit votes making the ground for predictions even more unsteady.

Source: Pollcheck

The elections will take place on Thursday 7 May. 

Polling stations will open from 7am until 10pm and friendly polling station staff will be on hand throughout the day to support voters with any accessibility needs. 

Those voting in person, must remember to bring photo ID to vote. A full list of Accepted photo ID is listed on the Electoral Commission website.   

Poll cards are not needed to vote, but they show the voter’s polling station address. This is useful as some polling stations have changed since the last election. Voters can  check their polling station location, on the council website by entering their postcode 

Presenting a polling card can also help to make the voting process quicker and reduce waiting times.  

Postal voters who want to hand deliver their completed postal votes can do so at the main reception in Hounslow House, TW3 3EB, or at a polling station in their ward, before 10pm on Thursday, 7 May.   

Find more information about the Hounslow Council local election on the council website