New Polling Suggests Surprise Reform Win in Brentford

Local wards now ranked as some of the most marginal in the borough

The election is taking place on 7 May

April 24, 2026

Updated polling numbers are suggesting very different outcomes from earlier projections in local seats with Reform UK and more independent candidates now predicted to become councillors for the Brentford area with the Liberal Democrats possibly springing a surprise in Isleworth as well as Osterley & Spring Grove.

As in previous coverage, our analysis relies heavily on Pollcheck, an organisation which blends third party poll results with demographic information to make projections at a ward level.

Given the relatively small number of votes that will decide each seat and the inability of this approach to pick up factors such as councillor performance and issues of particular concern in a ward, the projections should be regarded as speculative although objective.

Changes made by Pollcheck over the last two weeks have led to some radical alterations in its predicted seat allocations. Brentford West was previously categorised as a safe Labour seat. However, the vote share project for the independent candidate, Scott Illman has been reduced with a big increase for Reform, to the extent that it is predicted to get more votes than Labour and take one of the available seats with a 5.9 percentage point edge. Reform has been criticised for fielding paper candidates in wards across London, but this cannot be said of Bob Ayres who has been an active community campaigner in the area for some time. This projection has the Greens, including Cllr Guy Lambert in third place.

Bob Ayres is standing for Reform in Brentford West

In Syon and Brentford Lock, the Brentford & Isleworth Independent candidates are not predicted to take two of the three seats gaining over a third of the vote in what is seen as the third most marginal ward in the borough. The difference between the independent candidates and Labour is just 2.6 percentage points which points to winning margins in three or even two figures. It is not clear whether the analysis captures the likely personal vote share of the existing independent councillor Theo Dennison. Former Deputy Leader Katherine Dunne could face losing her seat if the independents match these projections.

Isleworth is projected to be even more marginal with the Liberal Democrats faring well and shown as winning one of the three seats available with Labour taking the other two. Reform is not too far behind in third place with a fifth of the vote. Cabinet members Sue Smapson and Salman Shaheen as well as John Stroud-Turp, the Labour Group Chief Whip currently represent this ward and would be major scalps for the opposition.

The Lib Dems are also tipped to take one of the seats in Osterley and Spring Grove. This is a major change from the previous projections which had Reform as the main challenger to Labour with The Greens also competitive.

Brentford East is now rated as Labour’s safest seat in the borough with the pollsters relying on the win for the party in the by-election last year to project a comfortable win for the party.

Chiswick Riverside, a ward which contains a significant number of properties in the TW8 postcode area, is likely to keep at least two Conservative candidates with The Greens seen as the main challenger for the third seat. Earlier, Pollcheck had this ward as neck and neck but now sees the Tories as having a 9 percentage point lead.

In Hounslow, Labour is still expected to remain the largest party, but the race is far tighter than in previous years.The borough enters the election with a more complicated political landscape than in 2022. Labour remains the dominant force locally, but polling and expert commentary suggest a more competitive contest with Pollcheck giving a 17% chance of a change of administration. City A.M. reports that Labour is favoured to hold the council “but only just,” with Reform UK contesting all 62 seats, the Greens targeting Chiswick, and independents active across the borough.

Pollcheck’s central forecast for the number of Labour councillors is 42 with just 31 needed for a majority. However, 29 is the lower end of the possible range with the Conservatives and Reform projected to get up to 16 and 14 seats respectively. The current analysis has wound back on previously more optimistic seat ranges for The Greens. The Conservatives continue to form the main opposition and are campaigning on issues such as council tax, street cleanliness and neighbourhood safety. Turnout in the western part of Hounslow is typically low, meaning even small shifts in vote share could reshape ward level outcomes.

The broader London polling trends also point to increased fragmentation that is likely to be felt in Hounslow. YouGov’s modelling shows that across the capital, margins between first and second place in many boroughs are extremely narrow, sometimes within two percentage points. This suggests that Hounslow’s more marginal ward may see tighter races than in previous years. Taken together, the polling suggests that while Labour is still positioned to retain control of Hounslow, the borough is no longer the safe stronghold it once was.

Labour is facing heavy losses across the capital, while the Greens and Reform UK are projected to make historic gains. A major YouGov MRP poll published on 22 April indicates that London is entering one of its most fragmented election cycles in decades, with close contests in many boroughs and no single party dominating the citywide picture. The model suggests that Labour could see its worst London results since the 1970s, with its projected vote share falling sharply compared with 2022. The Greens are forecast to lead in four boroughs long held by Labour, while Reform UK is projected to come first in three outer-London councils. Half of all boroughs are rated “very close” or “super close,” reflecting a wider pattern of multi-party competition and volatile voter behaviour.

Further analysis from Sky News reinforces this picture, noting that the Greens and Reform UK are set to benefit most from Labour’s decline, with the party’s London-wide vote share projected to drop to around 26 percent. This would leave Labour still the largest party in the capital but significantly weakened.

The elections will take place on Thursday 7 May. 

Residents who wish to apply for someone to vote on their behalf, must submit a new proxy vote application. The deadline to apply for a proxy vote is  5pm on Tuesday 28 April.