Polls Suggest Brentford & Isleworth Closer Than Expected

Late Labour surge confounding expectations of comfortable Tory win

The candidates for Brentford and Isleworth
The candidates for Brentford and Isleworth

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The battle for Brentford and Isleworth in the 2017 General election looks set to be a lot more unpredictable than expected.

YouGov polls this week have published a poll predicting a hung parliament with the Conservatives failing to gain an overall majority. This is based on a seat by seat analysis and this puts Brentford & Isleworth as a ‘likely’ win for Labour. This is the first poll to predict a win for Ruth Cadbury as earlier it was assumed that her slim majority and the national swing against Labour would hand the seat to Mary Macleod.

Other polls are suggesting that Labour is performing particularly well in London with a 17 point lead over the Conservatives. Anecdotally it appears that Remain supporting Labour MPs are doing particularly well.

The constituency by constituency analysis on Lord Ashcroft Polls puts the chances of a Conservative victory at 57% This polling group is still predicting an overall Tory majority.

Of those polled in the seat who say they are certain to vote 48% say that they will select Mary Macleod for the Conservatives with 41% opting for Labour’s Ruth Cadbury leaving 11% support for Joe Bourke representing the Liberal Democrats.

The Ashcroft analysis also looks at the makeup of the constituency in terms of the way people voted in the EU Referendum. Although the majority supporter Remain only 34% are what are described as ‘Resisters’ that is people who want to reverse the result.

Another factor which is difficult to measure at this stage is the level of posting voting by students. With the seat being so marginal many may have chosen to register to vote in their home constituency rather than where they are studying. With Labour having committed to abolishing tuition fees the expectation is that this group would be substantially behind Ruth Cadbury.

The bookies have been busy in the constituency with Ladbrokes saying that there has been more betting activity in this seat than any other in the UK. Their odds on Mary Macleod winning have shortened from 4/1 on to 15/8 on over the last week with Ruth Cadbury now at 11/8.

June 2, 2017

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